Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa.

Iowa is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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