The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 64.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. This value is 6.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 9.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.