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Jerome model in Alabama: Trump is in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 45.6% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 54.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alabama econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.3%. This value is 4.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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