Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will receive 54.4% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will end up with 45.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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