Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Connecticut

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Connecticut. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 1.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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