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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in California

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.6% in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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