Jerome model: Clinton in Nebraska trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 41.6% of the two-party vote share in Nebraska, whereas Trump will win 58.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 61.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Nebraska. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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