Jerome model: Clinton in Missouri trails by a small margin

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.4% for Clinton and 52.6% for Trump in Missouri.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri sees Trump at 55.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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