The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 46.7% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will end up with 53.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana has Trump at 57.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 4.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.0 percentage points higher.