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Jerome model: Clinton in Kansas trails by a clear margin

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 43.8% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 56.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 60.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 1.6 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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