Jerome model: Clinton in Arkansas trails by a small margin

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will end up with 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 58.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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