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Jerome model: Clinton in Alaska trails by a very clear margin

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.9% for Clinton and 69.1% for Trump in Alaska.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 64.6%. This value is 4.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 21.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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