Hawaii: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 9.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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