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DeSart model: Trump with small lead in Florida


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 52.1%.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.7% in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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