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DeSart model: Trump in New Mexico trails by a small margin


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 53.0% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, whereas Trump will end up with 47.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 52.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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