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DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump in Michigan.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan, which is 1.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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