DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 33.2% for Clinton and 66.8% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 60.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. This value is 6.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in West Virginia, which is 4.9 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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