DeSart model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 55.4% of the two-party vote share in Washington, whereas Trump will end up with 44.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Washington. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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