DeSart model in South Carolina: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 42.0% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, whereas Trump will win 58.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina.