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DeSart model in Nebraska: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.9% for Clinton and 64.1% for Trump in Nebraska.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 61.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nebraska. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in Nebraska, which is 3.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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