DeSart model in Mississippi: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.4% for Clinton and 58.6% for Trump in Mississippi.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Mississippi sees Trump at 56.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Mississippi, which is 4.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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