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DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump with very clear lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will win 64.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Kentucky econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.3%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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