DeSart model in Illinois: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 46.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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