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DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton with very clear lead


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 64.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 17.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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