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DeSart model in Florida: Trump with small lead


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 52.1%.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have often won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.7% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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