Hit enter after type your search item

DeSart model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

/
/
/
11 Views

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.7% for Clinton and 57.3% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar