The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.9% for Clinton and 60.1% for Trump in Alaska.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Alaska has Trump at 64.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points higher.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.