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DeSart model in Alaska: Trump with clear lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.9% for Clinton and 60.1% for Trump in Alaska.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alaska has Trump at 64.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points higher.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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