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DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Oregon

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 54.0% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, while Trump will end up with 46.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 1.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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