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DeSart model: Clinton in Texas trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 39.2% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will end up with 60.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Texas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.1%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 5.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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