DeSart model: Clinton in South Carolina trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump in South Carolina.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 55.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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