The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.5% for Clinton and 57.5% for Trump in Missouri.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.2 percentage points higher.