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DeSart model: Clinton in Missouri trails by a clear margin

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.5% for Clinton and 57.5% for Trump in Missouri.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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