DeSart model: Clinton in Alabama trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 35.8% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will end up with 64.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alabama sees Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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