In today's update, Polly concludes that Clinton will gain 52.8% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.2% for Trump. When taking previous election years into account, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.
This is what Polly's components expect
There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 54.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the polls. Clinton wins 28.1 percentage points.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably high with 54.2% in prediction markets. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 54.5% for Democratic candidate.