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Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton


In today's update, Polly concludes that Clinton will gain 52.8% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.2% for Trump. When taking previous election years into account, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.

This is what Polly's components expect

There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 54.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the polls. Clinton wins 28.1 percentage points.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably high with 54.2% in prediction markets. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 54.5% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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