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California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 56.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in California. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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