The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.6%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.9 percentage points higher.