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Arkansas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.6%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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