WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31, among a random sample of 628 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 51.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Georgia. Relative to his numbers in the WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.