Results of a new poll administered by WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA were published. The poll asked interviewees from Georgia for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 29 and July 31. The sample size was 628 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump. In the most recent WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll on August 7 Clinton received 52.3%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia has Trump at 51.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.