The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump in Wisconsin.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Wisconsin econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. This value is 2.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin, which is 2.0 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.