Jerome model: Trump in Washington trails by a small margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.8% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will win 47.2%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 47.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Washington has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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