Putting the results in context

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump in Virginia.

Virginia is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 0.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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