Jerome model: Clinton in Virginia trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 55.7% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 5.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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