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Vermont: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 60.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Vermont. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.7% of the two-party vote in Vermont, which is 6.5 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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