DeSart model in Texas: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton and 60.9% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with 60.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Texas sees Trump at 57.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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