DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Texas

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 39.2% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will end up with 60.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Texas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.1%. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 5.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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