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Tennessee: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 36.7% for Clinton and 63.3% for Trump in Tennessee. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 57.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Tennessee. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.1% of the two-party vote in Tennessee, which is 7.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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