Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University were circulated. The poll asked participants from Florida for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular importance.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 1 to August 3, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. In the most recent Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University poll on August 7 Clinton received only 46.7%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.