Suffolk UniversitySuffolk published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll results
This poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 45.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. In the latest Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll on July 28 Clinton obtained 55.0%, while Trump obtained 45.1%.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 45.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 45.6 percentage points. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.8% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania.