South Carolina: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump in South Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 55.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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