PPP (D)PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from November 7 to November 8 with 1290 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of South Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.0%. Compared to his numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 2.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.