Jerome model: Trump in Rhode Island trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 61.7% of the two-party vote share in Rhode Island, whereas Trump will end up with 38.3%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win only 38.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Rhode Island econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.9%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in Rhode Island, which is 1.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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